Impacts of rapid population growth, urbanization and Climate Change on water security risks in Pakistan’s down stream areas
Keywords:
Water Scarcity, Indus River Basin, Population Growth, Urbanization, Climate Change, Water Security, Hydrological Variability, Food Security, Downstream RegionsAbstract
Water shortage has become the most significant type of non-traditional security that is facing Pakistan especially in the downstream areas of Indus River Basin. This study discussed how current population growth, increasing urbanization, and climate change convergence compound water scarcity and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The study conducted using a qualitative research methodology, in which the close nexus of effects of demographic pressure and increase in water demand, inefficient water governance, hydrological variability, and climate-induced alterations in the Indus River System are analyzed by extensively reviewing and examining academic literature, government reports, policy reports, and other international publications. The results indicate that population growth has largely decreased the availability of water per capita, as well as urbanization and industrialization have raised domestic, agricultural, and industrial water demand. The effects of climate change have also interfered with the hydrological cycle by causing a receding of glaciers, unpredictable monsoon cycles, recurrent floods, extended droughts, and rising of the sea level leading to reduced water quality and quantity in down-stream regions. The paper concludes that water crisis in Pakistan is a compilation of the interaction of the three factors of demographic, environmental, and governance factors rather than being a one-factor cause. It highlights the urgency of integrated water resources management, climate-resistant infrastructure, institutional reforms, equitable water distribution, demand-side management, sustainable population policies to enhance the Pakistan long-term water security and socioeconomic resilience.
Downloads
References
Ahmad. (2023). Water Policy in Pakistan. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-36131-9
Ahmad, M. (2023). Water Policy in Pakistan issues and options. Springer International Publishing.
Ahmad, Mahmood. (2023). Water Policy in Pakistan: Issues and Options (1st ed., Vol. 30). Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
Ahmad, S., Jia, H., Ashrf, A., Yin, D., Chen, Z., Xu, C., . . . Ahmad, R. (2023). Water resources and their management in Pakistan: A critical analysis on challenges and implications. Water-Energy Nexus, 6, 137-150. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2023.10.001
Ahmed, Z. (2019). Pakistan’s Water Crisis and Indus River System: Revisiting National Security. Journal of Political Studies, 26(2), 149-171. Retrieved from https://jps.pu.edu.pk/6/article/view/513
Aijaz, A., & Akhter, M. (2020). From Building Dams to Fetching Water: Scales of Politicization in the Indus Basin. Water, 12(5). doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051351
Ashraf, D. M. (2018). Water Scarcity in Pakistan Issues and Options. (P. C. Resources, Ed.) Islamabad. Retrieved June 10, 2026, from https://pcrwr.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Water-Scarcity-in-Pakistan-Issues-and-Options-May-18.pdf
Associated Press of Pakistan. (2025). Water scarcity: A threat to food security in Pakistan. Peshawar: Associated Press of Pakistan. Retrieved June 10, 2026, from https://www.app.com.pk/features/water-scarcity-a-threat-to-food-security-in-pakistan/
Awan, A. N., Nasir, M. S., Shaukat, I., & Anwar, S. (2016). Impact of Samanduri Drain on Water Resources of Faisalabad. Advances in Environmental Biology, 10(1), 155-160.
Baron, D., & Asad, S. (2023). Turning Concern into Action: Understanding Climate Change Attitudes in Pakistan. World Bank. Retrieved July 20, 2026, from https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/endpovertyinsouthasia/turning-concern-action-understanding-climate-change-attitudes-pakistan
Barrech, D. M., Ahmed, M., Anwar, S., Aslam, A., Baloch, M. S., & Ejaz, R. (2023). Climate Diplomacy in Indo-Pak Relations. Journal of Positive School Psychology, 7(4), 242-252.
Begum, D. S., & Ali, A. (2025). Water Scarcity in Pakistan: Analyzing Its Political, Social, And Economic Impacts. Indus Journal of Social Sciences, 3(2), 431-440. doi:10.59075/ijss. v3i2.1275
Climate Risk Index. (2026). Bonn, Germany: Germanwatch e.V. Retrieved June 2026, from https://www.germanwatch.org/en/cri
Web Desk. (2025). Per capita water availability declines amid population surge, NA told. Geo News. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.geo.tv/latest/638188-per-capita-water-availability-declines-amid-population-surge-na-told
Eckstein, D., Kunzel, V., & Schafer, L. (2017). Global Climate Risk Index 2018: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2016 and 1997 to 2016. 36. Bonn and Berlin, Germany: Germanwatch e.V. Retrieved April 1, 2026, from https://www.fie.undef.edu.ar/ceptm/pdf/misiones/01.pdf
Fatima, M. (2024). Food Insecurity and Scarcity in Pakistan: Causes and Impacts. Annals of Human and Social Sciences, 5(2 (s)), 254-263. doi:http://doi.org/10.35484/ahss.2024(5-II-S)25
Gupta, J., & Ebrahim, Z. T. (2017). Win some, lose some, Indus Waters Treaty continues. Climate Diplomacy. Retrieved June 2026, from https://climate-diplomacy.org/magazine/win-some-lose-some-indus-waters-treaty-continues
Haider, M. (2024). At 2.55pc, Pakistan population growth rate highest in South Asia. The International News. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1211099-at-2-55pc-pakistan-population-growth-rate-highest-in-south-asia
Hijazi, A. (2025). Crisis of Overpopulation in Pakistan: Need for Effective Population Management. Journal of Geopolitical & Geo-economic Studies, 1(2), 51-72. doi:10.64988/k6wdff62
Hussain, M. I., Muscolo, A., Farooq, M., & Ahmad, W. (2019). Sustainable Use and Management of Non-Conventional Water Resources for Rehabilitation of Marginal Lands in Arid and Semiarid Environments. Agricultural Water Management, 221, 462-476. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.04.014
Iftikhar, M. A. (2025). Impact of Food Scarcity on National Security of Pakistan. Islambad. Retrieved June 4, 2026
Iqbal, M. A. (2025). Addressing Population Planning Problem is a National Emergency. Ministery of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://pc.gov.pk/web/press/get_press/1590
Jabeen, A., Huang, X., & Aamir, M. (2015). The Challenges of Water Pollution, Threat to Public Health, Flaws of Water Laws and Policies in Pakistan. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 7(17). doi:10.4236/jwarp.2015.717125
Khan. (2019). Impact of urbanization on water resources of Pakistan: A review. NUST Journal of Engineering Sciences, 12(1). doi:https://doi.org/10.24949/njes. v12i1.230
Khan. (2024). Pakistan: On The Front Line of Climate Change. (F. Zahidi, Ed.) Karachi, Pakistan: IBA Press.
Khan et al. (2016). Geopolitics of Water in South Asia. Journal of Current Affairs. Retrieved June 05, 2026
Khan, M., Hina, S., & Ali, H. (2019). Impact of Urbanization on Water Resources of Pakistan: A review. NUST Journal of Engineering Sciences, 12(1).
Khizar, M., Nawaz, S., Bashir, H., & Aqeel, M. (2025). Climate Change Impacts on the Indus River Basin: Hydrology, Water Quality, and Treaty Implications. Jouranl of Energy and Environment, 6(1), 112-126.doi: https://doi.org/10.52131/jee.2025.0601.0058
Kiani, K. (2025). Population growth puts strain on Pakistan’s water resources: ADB. DAWN. Retrieved June 4, 2026, from https://www.dawn.com/news/1960064
Mahmood, S. A., & Khalid, M. S. (2025). Water scarcity in Pakistan — a geopolitical ticking time bomb. The Dawn. Retrieved June 4, 2026, from https://www.dawn.com/news/1913435
Mansoor, S. (2025). Pakistan’s Water Security Crisis: Challenges and the Case for Integrated Water Resource Management. NUST Journal of International Peace & Stability, 8(1), 30-48. doi:https://doi.org/10.37540/njips. v8i1.184
Maqbool, N. (2023). Impact of Climate Change on Water in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 62(4), 605-616. doi:10.30541/v62i4605-616
Misra, A. K. (2014). Climate change and challenges of water and food security. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 3(1), 153-165. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2014.04.006
Munir, K., Khalid, I., & Shahrukh, W. (2021). Water conflict between Pakistan and India: Implications to regional peace and security. Journal of Humanities, Social and Management Sciences, 2(2). Retrieved March 2, 2026, from https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-72987-5_9
Mustafa, K. (2024). Pakistan faces population explosion. The International News. Retrieved June 05, 2026, from https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1199602-pakistan-faces-population-explosion
Pakistan Census. (2023). Family Search. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.familysearch.org/en/wiki/Pakistan_Census
Parry, Jo-Ellen; Terton, Anika; Osman, Hisham. (2016). Making Every Drop Count: Pakistan’s Growing Water Scarcity Challenge. International Institute for Sustainable Development. Retrieved May 12, 2026, from https://policycommons.net/artifacts/612791/making-every-drop-count/1592422/
Pohl, B., & Schmeier, S. (2014). Hydro-Diplomacy Can Build Peace Over Shared Waters, But Needs More Support. New Security Beat. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2014/09/hydro-diplomacy-builds-peace-shared-waters-support/
Sattar, U. (2023). Pakistan’s Political Economy Perpetuates Its Water Crisis. The Stimson Center. Retrieved June 4, 2026, from https://www.stimson.org/2023/pakistans-political-economy-perpetuates-its-water-crisis/
Shirsat, T. S., Fowler, L. B., & Scott, C. A. (2026). Past, present and future of the indus water treaty: implications for transboundary water governance challenges and modernization prospects. water policy, 28. DOI: 10.1016/j.wasec.2026.100198
Siyal, D. A., & Hashmi, D. Z. (2018). Impact of Climate Change in the Indus River Delta. Islambad, Pakistan: Global Change Impact Studies Centre. Retrieved June 12, 2026
Sohail, M. T., Al-Ansari, N. M., Shafi, A., & Ullah, J. (2023). Impacts of urbanization, LULC, LST, and NDVI changes on the static water table with possible solutions and water policy discussions: A case from Islamabad, Pakistan. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11. doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1018500
Somani, R. (2023). Global Warming in Pakistan and Its Impact on Public Health as Viewed Through a Health Equity Lens. International Journal of Social Determinants of Health and Health Services, 53(2), 154-157. doi: 10.1177/27551938231154467.
The Nation. (2025). Overpopulation Crisis in Sindh. The Nation. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.nation.com.pk/11-Jul-2025/overpopulation-crisis-in-sindh.
The News International. (2024). Population growth placing intense pressure on Sindh’s resources: CM. Karachi, Pakistan: Jang Group of Newspapers. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1250010-population-growth-placing-intense-pressure-on-sindh-s-resources-cm.
Verner, M., Marlon, J., Thaker, J., Carman, J., Rosenthal, S., Deshmukh, Y., . . . Leiserowitz, E. G. (2025). Climate Impacts in India: Experience, Worry, and Attribution to Global Warming. New Haven, Connecticut USA: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Retrieved May 2, 2026, from https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-impacts-india/
Web Desk. (2024). Rapid population growth puts pressure on Sindh’s limited resources. Times of Karachi. Retrieved June 5, 2026, from https://timesofkarachi.pk/43708-rapid-population-growth-puts-pressure-sindhs-limited-resources/
Downloads
Published
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Seerat Batool, Dr. Bilal Bin Liaqat, Aamir Nawaz (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
