China’s security concerns in Taliban-led Afghanistan, 2021–2023
Keywords:
China, Afghanistan, Taliban, Regional Security Complex Theory, ETIM/TIP, ISKP, Belt and Road Initiative, Regional SecurityAbstract
The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan in August 2021 reignited the regional security landscape and necessitated China's redefinition of its Afghanistan policy. This study analyzes key security concerns driving China's policy towards the Taliban-led Afghanistan in 2021-2023 and explores the linkage between security, regional stability and geopolitical and geo-economic interests. This research uses qualitative research method and thematic analysis of the official Chinese statements, United Nations reports, academic papers and policy studies quoted in this document. A total of six themes were identified, which are interlinked and include concern over the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), the threat of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), border and Wakhan Corridor security, regional counterterrorism cooperation, protection of Chinese citizens, investments, and connectivity projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the reliability of Taliban counterterrorism commitments. The results show that the Chinese government had been influenced by the policy of diplomacy rather than military intervention as well as intelligence, security cooperation, multilateral cooperation and economic measures. The study posits that security is the major factor influencing China's engagement with Afghanistan, while economic connectivity and investment opportunities are still vital factors, yet are dependent on a more secure regional and Afghan environment.
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