Climate Change and poverty traps: Evidence from flood-affected Regions of Pakistan
Keywords:
Poverty Traps, Climate Change, Flood Vulnerability, Pakistan, Intersectional Analysis, FIRI, Disaster Risk Reduction, BISP, Smallholder Farmers, GenderAbstract
This paper investigates the relationship between climate-induced floods and poverty trap formation in Pakistan, focusing on the 2022, 2024, and 2025 monsoon floods. It examines whether recurrent flood shocks push vulnerable households, particularly poor rural households, women, and smallholder farmers, into persistent poverty through the erosion of livelihood assets. The study develops a household-level Flood Impact and Resilience Index (FIRI) using secondary data from Pakistan's Post Disaster Needs Assessment, National Disaster Management Authority, World Bank, and United Nations agencies. Hierarchical OLS regression with heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors and an Intersectional Vulnerability Index are applied. Results reveal that poor female-headed smallholder households experience the greatest flood impacts, with significantly higher FIRI scores than wealthier landowning households. Interaction effects confirm that poverty, gender, and smallholder status jointly intensify vulnerability, while enrolment in the Benazir Income Support Programme significantly reduces flood impacts. The findings emphasize the need for shock-responsive social protection, improved early warning systems, and a strategic shift from disaster relief to disaster risk reduction and prevention in Pakistan.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Gerald Angelo, Sajjad Yousaf, Mujahid Hussain, Abdul Khaliq (Author)
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